delta_outflow_4.18.18

Approaches to Scenario Development
Simply adjust outflow/inflow by a specific quantity of watertoo difficult w/CalSIMApplying a straight % reduction in diversionreduction needs were too small forCalSIMto respond (i.e., withinCalSIMerror bars)Reduce outflow targets to identify associated water costspreferred approach
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Scenarios
Schedule A – Year-round Increases Delta OutflowsSchedule B – Reduced Winter (Jan/Feb) FlowsSchedule C – Spring Outflow Enhancement + Summer Delta Smelt FlowsSchedule D – Spring Outflow EnhancementSchedules E-G – Reduced Spring Outflow
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Model Assumptions
Outflow targets adjusted (Schedules B-G)No pre-assigned reduction in diversionsReservoir storage adjusted to maintain cold water poolFolsom 400 TAFOroville 1.0 MAFShasta 2.2 MAFCalSIMweighting adjusted to prioritize reservoir storage levels over outflow and diversions
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Schedule A –Year-round Increases Delta OutflowsImproved survival and potential for year after year population growth (LFS/CHNK/STLHD)Benefits sturgeon by providing better environmental conditions to increase the likelihood of successful sturgeon year classes (attraction flows)Benefits Delta smelt through improved survival and potential for year after year population growth~1.98 MAF
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Schedule B– Reduced Winter (Jan/Feb) FlowsImproved survival and potential for year after year population growth (LFS/CHNK/STLHD)Benefits sturgeon by providing better environmental conditions to increase the likelihood of successful sturgeon year classes (attraction flows)Benefits Delta smelt through improved survival and potential for year after year population growth~1.35 MAF
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Schedule C– Spring Outflow Enhancement + Summer Delta Smelt FlowsImproved survival and potential for year after year population growth (LFS/CHNK/STLHD)Benefits Delta smelt through improved survival and potential for year after year population growth~1.3 MAF
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Schedule D– Spring Outflow EnhancementImproved survival and potential for year after year population growth (LFS/CHNK/STLHD)~1.0 MAF
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Schedule E -Reduced Spring OutflowImproved survival and potential for year after year population growth of Longfin Smelt~0.91 MAF
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Schedule F -Reduced Spring Outflow~0.45 MAF
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Schedule G -Reduced Spring Outflow~0.7 MAF
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Estimated average annual increase in total volume of water (acre foot) needed to achieve associated SWRCB’s % of unimpaired Delta outflow.
Schedule G* was not modeled, Mar-May flow of W and AN water years estimated at 38,000cfs.