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Are the numbers true_ - National University of Singapore

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Wildcats won their opposing team by a small marginNot showing their true ability!!!Bribed to not perform as well?
Are the results true?
Group 3:Annabella Fong, Bok Wen Xuan and GohJieSheng.
Point spreadingPoint shavingExamples of point shavingExposing point shavingConclusion
Point Spreading
Point Spreading - wageringon the outcome of an event where the pay-off is based on the accuracy of the wager, rather than a simple "win or lose"outcomeE.g. In a Basketball match, you can bet how much more points will Team A earn compared to Team B
Point shaving
Illegalpractice – One or more bribed players deliberately limit the number of points scored in the game , to conform the desires of the gamblerE.g.Football players intentionally fumble or lose the football to keep reduce the winning margin closer or to give opposing team to score and make the point spread smaller.E.g. Basketball players can intentionally miss their goal, make a foul or swap out their best players nearing the end of the match
Kentucky Scandal
Beard and 2 other Kentucky players, were charged for taking bribes from gamblers to alter the results of Kentucky games.They were engulfed in a scandal that eventually involved players from seven teams including theCityCollege squad that won the National Invitation Tournament and the N.C.A.A. tournament in 1950In April 1952, Beard,Grozaand Barnstable pleaded guiltyforconspiring to shave points.
Ralph Beard (Kentucky Wildcats)
Dixie Classic Scandal
3-day basketball eventin lateDecember,four games each day. Winners will advance toward a championship showdown and losers will continue to play.North Carolina State University basketball coach Everett Caseinvitedfour of the top college teams in the country andVS State, North Carolina, Duke and Wake Forest on the first day.Butit wascancelledin 1961 because of a national point-shaving scandal that included players from N.C. State University and UNC-Chapel Hill.Four N.C. State players- DonGallagher, StanNiewierowski, AntonMuehlbauerand Terry Litchfield-andUNC's Lou Brownwere among players across the country who were charged withfixing college gamesin that era.
Arizona State Point Shaving Scandal
Burton,Mangiamele,DominicMangiamele, Vincent Basso and JosephGaglianoadmitted they were involved in a point-shaving scheme allegedly masterminded by former Arizona State student BennySilmanduring the 1993-94 season.Silman,28 was sentenced forgetting Stevin "Hedake" Smith and Burton to shave points in certain games so the team wouldn't beat the point spread.Smith asked Burton for help in fixing the first two games in return for cash.
Point shaving in the 2000s
Seven former ToledoUniversity playersin football and basketball have pleaded guilty to conspiracy.Altered their play or supply him with information about the Rockets or their opponents, generally between 2004-2006.In return, they receive money, meals, groceries or gambling chips from Ghazi ”Gary”Manni
Common point of the point shaving scandals
Common in basketball matchesWidespread amongst college students where this would seem like a lucrative source of money for themLess scrutiny for college games.JustinWolfer(an economist) said that point shaving is less likely when the probability of detection is high, and more likely when the reward is large.
How to expose point shaving?
All Games , excluding favourites
Effort – the losing team may lose heart and motivation when they are behind the score of the opposing team; coaches switching in second-tier playersetcBetting market efficiency – overestimate the favourite’s ability ,- the peak of the distribution of outcomes for strong favourites occur at outcomes in which the favourite barely fails to cover
All Games , excluding favourites
The triangles did not deviate from the base line of the projected wins.No evidence for biased prediction or overestimation of the favourites.
JustinWolferfound out that6 percent of strong favouriteshave been willing tomanipulate their performance1%of all games through his 16-year sample) may involvegambling related corruption.
Point Shaving scandals around the 1950s-1980s periodJustinWolfer’sfinding that up to 6% of favourites are willing to manipulate their performanceDON’T JUST LOOK AT THE RESULTS ON THE SURFACE





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Are the numbers true_ - National University of Singapore