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GE Hong Kong and China

Couraging and discouraging factors
for further democracy in Hong Kong
Discouraging factors
China's factor
1)Same degree of political reform or social movement cuuld be granted to other provinces in China (case study:occupy central)
2)consider as western conspiracy
Other factor-transitionTransition Fatigue
China factor
SAR=cannot decide its own constitutional future

The power of interpretation of this Law shall be vested in the Standing Committee of the National People's Congress.
Basic law158
China's stands
Skeptical
Why?
China's objection
Case study:2014:OccupyCentral
A civil disobedience movement
-Started from September 28,2014 to December 11,2014
-Mainly breaks out in Mong Kok,Kowloon and Causeway Bay
-More than ten thoursand people
-"Umbrella Revolution"
Reason behind the movement
http://amanpour.blogs.cnn.com/2014/09/29/hong-kong-occupy-activist-digs-in-for-the-long-run-it-is-a-war-not-a-battle/

(0030-150)
China's reaction
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=fjNzP6abbbk
China's views
"I see no way the Chinese government can tolerate what is happening in HK. Greatly fear this will end badly," tweeted Mike Chinoy, a senior fellow at the U.S.-China Institute at the University of Southern California
Western conspiracy
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=cp2a4v3hBVg
(0-150)
Other factor-Transition Fatigue
Make it hard to maintainmomentum
Couraging factor
1)authority structure
2)political perspectives
3)intrinsically unstable
authority structure
China V.S .Hong Kong
China situation
Hong Kong situation
Number of positions selected by party state over leadership selection : below 30
The method for selecting the Chief Executive shall be specified in the light of the actual situation in the Hong Kong Special Administrative Region and in accordance with the principle of gradual and orderly progress
Basic Law 45
Political perspective
1)the power of the standing committee of the npc
2)make almost all politics
intrinsically unstable
1)international pressure
2)Citizen pressure
Xi Jinping
General Secretary of the Communist Party of China
Internal factors:
anxiety arises from
1)decline of growth rate , 2)energy shortage and 3)widening regional disparity
External factor:
liberal awarenesses from Hong Kong may spread to China
China can not afford universal suffrage
China's situation
http://amanpour.blogs.cnn.com/2014/09/29/hong-kong-occupy-activist-digs-in-for-the-long-run-it-is-a-war-not-a-battle/
Chinese-language Sing Tao Daily News said in an editorial: “They demand the downfall of Leung Chun-ying. It is close to an attempt to overthrow the regime. There are already signs of color revolution.”
Chinese President Xi Jinping :"China, I think, would suffer as it feels it a considerable loss of face if it were to back down in the face of these demonstrations."
China’s official People’s Daily warned that “any intention among a small number of people to hold a color revolution on the mainland through Hong Kong would be a daydream,”
The seven perspectives

1)Elite
Soft liner:pro-democracy party(want universal suffrage)
V.S.
hard liner:PRC(gradual political reform)
2)Class power
Businessmen:against(affect business)
Rural working class:no opinion
Professional classes and students: support
3)Political culture
Highly active during the occupy central movement
4)Social movement
fight for democracy
5)
The Chinese government is censoring posts on Weibo, a popular social media site , "Hong Kong" is now the deleted search term on the social media site and Instagram was blocked for the first time in Hong Kong.
Chen Zuoer, formerly a top official in the Chinese government’s Hong Kong and Macau Affairs Office, explicitly called the Occupy Central protests a “Hong Kong version of color revolution.
public dialogue
A reform consultation is hold between five student representatives and five government officers

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GE Hong Kong and China